US Dollar May Pull Back from November Top, SPX 500 at Risk

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By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist 26 November 2013 06:04 GMT Talking Points:

US Dollar May Pull Back from November Swing Top S&P 500 Downswing Hinted in Technical Positioning Gold Prices Move to Retest Monthly Trend Resistance Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded from resistance-turned-support at the top of a falling channel set from July (now in the 10491-518 area) as expected. Near-term resistance is in the 10641-53 region, marked by the November 12 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A push above that targets the 38.2% level at 10839. Negative RSI divergence warns a near-term pullback may be ahead, with a move below the November 20 low at 10535 eying the channel anew.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 1808.20, the 150% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence and the outlines of a Rising Wedge chart formation reinforce the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 1798.50, the 138.2% Fib, with a break below that eyeing the 123.6% level at 1779.80. A push above resistance targets the 161.8% expansion at 1820.80.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices bounced from support at 1222.60, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion. Resistance is at 1256.18, the intersection of the 23.6% Fib retracement and a falling trend line set from late October. A break above that targets the 38.2% retracement at 1276.35. Alternatively, a reversal below support eyes the $1200/oz figure and the 100% expansion at 1179.63.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices continue to consolidate above the November 14 low 92.49, with positive RSI divergence hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is in the 94.76-95.37 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break above that initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.14. Alternatively, a move below 92.49 targets the channel bottom at 89.40.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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26 November 2013 06:04 GMT Nov, 25 07:21 GMT Dollar Takes Aim at Monthly High, SPX 500 Reversal Risk Remains Nov, 22 12:26 GMT Dollar Returns to November Highs, SPX 500 Clings to Support Nov, 21 14:05 GMT Dollar Rally Resumes as Expected, Gold Breaks October Bottom Nov, 20 03:28 GMT US Dollar Gains Expected After Pullback, SPX 500 May Be Topping Nov, 19 05:27 GMT US Dollar Upside Bias Favored, SPX 500 Snaps 3-Day Win Streak