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Kamis, 09 Januari 2014
U.S. November Producer Price Index (MoM) rises to -0.1%; 0.7% (YoY)
Flash: Yen Weakness continues but doubts persist Abenomics-BBH
Key quotes
"This eclipsed the may high near 103.75, and the next major technical objective seems to be high near 110.65 August 2008".
"Some intermediate resistance is likely to be seen near 105, and the move will most likely be a slow grind higher as doubts persist about the effectiveness of Abenomics".
Rabu, 08 Januari 2014
Wall Street declines for the second meeting of the FOMC next week
Wall Street has logged its worst week since August. The Dow Jones and the S P 500 posted its & day as positive in the last 10 sessions.
The DJIA advanced 15.93 pts or 0.10 percent Friday, to close the session at 15, 755.36; the Dow declined 1.65 percent on the week. S P 500 declined 0.18 & pts or 0.01% today and closes the week 1.65% negative at 1, 775.32. The Nasdaq added 2.57 pts 0.06% or weekend at 4, 000.98; the composite lost 1.51% for the past 5 days.
GBP/USD finds support at 1.6260
GBP/USD triggered orders about 1.6315 stops at the beginning of the session, as the cable is down for the third day in a row. The pound to Dollar exchange rate lost 200 pips from 10 December high to low for 3 weeks to 1.6465 1.6265.
GBP/USD: Bias
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6290, down 0.33 percent on the day. The short-term outlook remains bearish slightly according to the index of FXstreet.com trend in 1 hour chart. MACD, CCI and momentum are pointing South, while the stochastic is bullish.
GBP/USD at media meet 1.6300, 1.6120 and 1.6000. On the upside, the heating elements are at 1.6320, 1.6350 and 1.6415.
Flash: A stronger dollar-TDS
Key quotes:
"The House of the United States passed the budget last night, helping to sustain a generally firmer USD".
"Focus on next week's FOMC meeting and 10-year yields in the United States approaching 2.90% are also USD-supportive".
Selasa, 07 Januari 2014
Running low on EUR/USD
Strategists at TD Securities "the biggest problem for EUR/USD over the next few days will be the potential for the Fed thins, that a considerable part of the participants believe could come as soon as next week".
EUR/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 1.3601, DMA is 50 and 200 DMA 1.3591 is 1.3255. (14) ' RSI 68.01 law. Supports are ascending from 1.3677, 1.3695, 1.3719, 1.3734, 1.3746, 1.3780, 1.3818, 1.3833 and 1.3871.
How to Find USDCAD Entry Levels with Fibonacci Retracements
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Talking Points - USDCAD has been on an uptrend and may continue to rally higher - A pullback to a Fibonacci level with a Japanese candlestick reversal pattern would provide an excellent risk to reward entry at an area of significant support watched by Forex Traders - In an uptrend, a stop can be placed one Fibonacci level below the level that was entered for the long trade. After a big uptrend seems to stall and pullback, novice traders oftentimes try to pick a top and short the previous move. Usually, they have some initial success, but when the correction ends and the uptrend resumes, these traders end up losing. Experienced Forex trend traders will take a different approach. They will scan their charts and look at the uptrends that they may have missed and then use a method to quickly and easily identify areas where they can pick up these strong currency trends at a discount. Forex traders use the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% to anticipate where a profit-taking decline might end. Forex traders will wait for price to successfully test a Fib level and bounce higher. A Japanese candlestick reversal pattern such as a bullish engulfing, hammer, or morning star that forms at one of these Fib levels is additional visual confirmation. These patterns are useful at showing that a particular Fib level will hold and the uptrend is about to resume.
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts) Trading Setup The current trading setup below shows a USDCAD daily chart uptrend resuming from a correction that ended on September 18th near at 1.0181. From this point, USDCAD has rallied over 500 pips to a high of 1.0707 on December 6th. For the last four days, USDCAD is in correction mode in what appears to be an orderly profit-taking decline. Typically, a currency pair will experience a 23.6% to 50% correction before the uptrend resumes. In other instances the correction can be as deep as 61.8% or 78.6% of the upswing rise. At the time of this writing, USDCAD is trading at 1.0624 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.0583. Traders will look for a successful test of this key support level before entering long. One of the candlestick reversal patterns pictured in the above diagram may appear as price rebounds from this support zone. The Trading Plan Once USDCAD forms a bullish reversal Japanese candlestick pattern at a key Fibonacci level i.e. 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6%, and starts to move up, look to enter long with a stop placed about 4-pips below the next level of Fibonacci support under the entry. A limit can be set at 1.0768 which is slightly above the recent high made on December 6th. This amounts to about 86 pips of risk and a 186 pips of potential gain. Remember, there are four other common Fibonacci levels to watch as well. So if the USDCAD fails to bounce from the 23.6%, then we can repeat the same method of first looking for a candlestick reversal pattern at or near the Fibonacci level, entering long after a bounce, and then placing a stop four pips below the next Fibonacci level. In fact, if the correction moves lower, we have the option to move our limit down to the next level of resistance. Learn Forex: USDCAD Fibonacci Setup
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts) If USDCAD declined to the 0.786% level, the stop would be placed four pips below the swing low at 1.0174 and profits could be taken 1.0582. The deeper the correction, the less likely the trend may continue as traders that were reluctant to buy the dips are unlikely to push price higher. If traders are aggressively buying dips at the 23.6% and 38.2% because they believe that there is good value, the trend is more likely to continue with new highs being made. Traders hoping get long at lower levels miss out and are forced to get in at higher and higher levels propelling price higher. Though it must be noted that if the correction exceeds 100% of the upswing, a change in trend direction may be underway. In sum, traders can use a combination of candlestick patterns and Fibonacci levels to identify high probability trades in the direction of the trend. ---Written by Gregory McLeod Trading Instructor To contact Gregory McLeod, email gmcleod@dailyfx.com. To be added to Greg’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to mailto:gmcleod@dailyfx.com Follow me on Twitter @gregmcleodtradr. This article showed you how to use Fibonacci to trade USDCAD. I want to invite you to enroll in our free Fibonacci Retracement Courseto further your understanding of Fibonacci. Sign our Guestbook to gain access to this course that will help you get up to speed on Forex market basics. You can master the material all while earning your completion certificate. Register HERE to start your Forex learning now!
Flash: EUR/USD risks remain skewed to upside - BTMU
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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that there are no major events taking place in Europe today (BOE’s Dales speaking at 1230 GMT is about it) and the focus remains very much on the tightening liquidity in euro-zone money markets as we approach year-end.
Key Quotes
“EONIA has been at 0.14% for the last two days – the highest levels outside month-end spikes since July 2012. The 3-month EUR basis remains in positive territory indicating a premium on euro funding that hasn’t happened since the financial crisis started over five years ago.”
“This may or may not reflect AQR-related demand from banks but it certainly suggests continued solid support for the euro. A taper announcement next week will probably only result in a shallow and brief correction lower. EUR/USD risks remains skewed to the upside over the short-term and we suspect there would be good buying on any dip.”
Senin, 06 Januari 2014
Setback EUR/USD settles above 1.3700
Amid broad strength USD, EUR/USD came under pressure and broke below 1.3740 zone, which extends to a low level before bouncing slightly 1.3708. With only November us PPI due for release today, the FX market could enjoy a session of consolidation as investors prepare for next week's Fed decision.
The latest batch of data from the United States, including strong NFP, came above expectations, reviving speculation that the Fed could begin to reduce its bond purchases this month or early next year.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3725 area still 0.2%, below the opening price, with immediate support by aligning to 1.3700 (psychological level) and 1.3685 (SMA 10 days). The flip side, the heating elements are seen at 1.3735 (intraday low resistance/Dec 12) and 1.3770 (daily), followed by 1.3811 (Dec 11) and 1.3832 (October 31).
Flash: GBP/USD supported ahead of FOMC - Investec
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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec notes that whilst jobless claims were disappointing yesterday, retail sales were stronger than expected, pushing GBP/USD lower as the USD made gains across the board.
Key Quotes
“However the currency pair still remains within 1% of 2013 highs, sterling is widely supported although its short term direction against the Dollar will be decided by events across the pond, with the FOMC meeting next week coming into sharp focus.”
“The Federal Reserve is not the only central bank playing an active role in driving foreign exchange markets, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens spoke yesterday and his frankness, in suggesting he wants to see the AUD continue to weaken, had the desired effect. The AUD weakened 1.3% against the pound and 1.6% against the USD.”
Minggu, 05 Januari 2014
GBP/USD prints fresh December lows
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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD slumped to a 2-week low during the European session as losses accelerated on the break of 1.6300.
The GBP/USD lost nearly 50 pips in a matter of minutes as it triggered stops orders and fell to a low of 1.6277, last seen Nov 28. At time of writing, the Cable is trading at the 1.6285 zone, recording a 0.4% decline on the day. MPC member Dale is scheduled to speak later on the day, while the US will publish November PPI figures.
GBP/USD technical levels
On the downside, the 1.6250 area is immediate support for the GBP/USD followed by 1.6239 (Nov 25 high) and 1.6200 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are now seen at 1.6360 (daily high), 1.6400 (psychological level) and 1.6417 (Dec 12 high).
Flash: USD Weakness has gone far enough-UBS
Key quotes
"This is open to a target to 0.8888 0.9250 and a stop loss at 0.8700".
"We think EURUSD and USDCHF are range bound and that USD weakness has gone far enough".
"The ECB, which cut rates when EURUSD was close to this level, it is likely that soon he speaks".
"The Fed is in the process of tapering and we strongly improved budget issues in recent days."
Sabtu, 04 Januari 2014
What Does the USDOLLAR Mean for Gold
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By Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor 12 December 2013 19:00 GMT
Talking Points
Gold and the Dollar When pricing a commodity like Gold it is always important to view the denomination that it is traded in. Gold, (XAU/USD) is based in the US Dollar, and is quoted in Dollars per oz. This means the price of gold is directly impacted by the price of the USD. Below we see Gold compared to the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index(USDOLLAR). These two assets are inversely correlated, meaning they will head in opposing directions. So how can traders use this information to their advantage? Well traders that may not have a clear outlook on Gold can use the USDOLLAR to form a trading bias. If you believe that the USDOLLAR will continue to rise in value, by way of correlation this would make you bearish on Gold. Conversely, if you think that the USDOLLAR is poised for a decline, you could also consider yourself bullish on Gold. Learn Forex – Gold & Dollar Correlation
2014 Trading Traders that are looking at trading Gold in 2014, will need to consider looking at the continuation of its current downtrend. After this year’s decline, an immediate bias would be to utilize a trend based trading plan to sell the commodity towards lower lows. Currently price is supported above the June low established at $1,180.15 If Gold fails to break a new low in the New Year, it could signal a period of consolidation or even a potential price reversal for the commodity. Traders can use the USDOLLAR to their advantage to spot a turn in the market. Current 2013 support on the Index remains solid at 10,000. A drop below this value would indicate a shift to USDOLLAR weakness, and likewise a strengthening in Gold. ---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor To contact Walker, email wengland@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @WEnglandFX. To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list, CLICK HERE and enter in your email information. Become a Smarter Trader Today Claim your FREE universal membership to DailyFX Internet Courses& save yourself hours in figuring out what FOREX trading is all about. You'll get this FREE 20 minute “New to FX” course presented by DailyFX Education. In the course, you will learn about the basics of a FOREX transaction, what leverage is, and how to determine an appropriate amount of leverage for your trading. You can instantly register for free hereto start your FOREX learning now! DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Jumat, 03 Januari 2014
3 Tips For Trading a Daily Chart
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Talking Points Identify the trend to form a trading bias using 6 months of price data. Time your entries, and wait patiently for trading opportunities. Managing risk is an important step in trading the Daily Chart, plan accordingly. Novice and veteran traders trying to trade the Forex market with daily charts run into a variety of hurdles. Often these longer term graphs can be deceptive and have traders falling for predictable mistakes. To help combat some of these issues, today we will review three helpful tips for daily chart traders. 1. Find the Trend The first tip for trading a daily chart is finding the trend! One of the benefits of trading the daily chart lies in the long drawn out moves of the Forex market. One way to identify the trend is to look at half a year’s worth of price data, or roughly 180 periods, and then identify the swing highs and lows created by price action. While this number of periods can be moved up or down to your liking, having a reference will keep you from looking at too much price data which substantially increases the difficulty of finding the trend. Below is an example of a 6 month trend on the EURAUD. Going back and referencing this price data on a daily chart allows us to identify market direction, while creating a trading bias. If the trend is up, daily chart traders will wait patiently and look for opportunities to buy the market. At no point should we consider trading against the trend. Learn Forex – EURAUD 1866 Pip Daily Trend
2. Remain Patient Why go through all the pains of finding a trend, and having a market trading plan if you aren’t going to use it? Daily chart traders need to avoid the bug of having to be in the market now. This can be incredibly difficult especially if you are watching markets on a daily basis. Remember that trading with Daily Candles may only yield one or two appropriate positions on a single currency pair for a whole year. This means staying out of the market and keeping your trading capital free until an opportunity emerges. The easiest way to remain patient is to keep a trading journal and join a trading community. In my experience this allows you to hold yourself accountable for following your trading strategy. For instance if you are trading with CCI on a daily chart, such as the example below, your trading journal should only show two entries! If your report is showing something different, it is time to reevaluate your trading plan. Learn Forex – EURAUD CCI Entries
3. Use Larger Stops and Less Leverage Traders that are trading on a daily chart should be aware of the larger intraday swings of the market. The main focus for this is to avoid being taken out of the market prematurely. One indicator a trader can use for this is ATR (Average True Range). ATR can help you find the average movements for a pair for a given period of time. Once this value is found, you can use a multiple of ATR to go about setting the Risk/Reward level of your choosing. Remember, using larger stops doesn’t mean you have to put more capital at risk. One frame of reference is to never risk more than 1% of your account balance on any one trade. Using this rule traders can still trade conservatively even on a daily chart by limiting their leverage. Even if you are trading with a large or small account balance, if you are having problems with this consider using smaller lot sizes. If you need help identifying how much of your capital is at risk on any one trade, check out the Risk Management Indicator at the FXCM App store. This application can quickly help you with the calculations. Become a Smarter Trader Today Claim your FREE universal membership to DailyFX Internet Courses& save yourself hours in figuring out what FOREX trading is all about. You'll get this FREE 20 minute “New to FX” course presented by DailyFX Education. In the course, you will learn about the basics of a FOREX transaction, what leverage is, and how to determine an appropriate amount of leverage for your trading. You can instantly register for free hereto start your FOREX learning now!
Flash: Sterling ahead of data exchange-Nomura
FXstreet.com (Londra) - analisti di ricerca Nomura Bank si noti che la prossima settimana è una settimana intensa davanti le vacanze per la sterlina.
"Forte di output dati sono rialzista per la crescita, ma sembra ancora sbilanciata".
Chiave cita:
"Pianificazione della settimana prossima è imballato con il mercato del lavoro, inflazione, vendite al dettaglio, finanza pubblica e PIL (stima del terzo), i dati e i minuti MPC".
"La messa a fuoco è probabile che sia sui dati del mercato del lavoro, e dato di mercati illiquidi, che i rischi sono per un forte sell-off presso il front-end dovrebbe il tasso di disoccupazione ILO venire giù un'altra tacca".
"L'inflazione (martedì), rapporto sul mercato del lavoro (mercoledì), minuti MPC (mercoledì), vendite al dettaglio (giovedì), PIL (venerdì) e le finanze pubbliche (venerdì)".
Kamis, 02 Januari 2014
USD/JPY rebounds off dip from multi year high
FXstreet.com (Barcellona) - avendo salito durante la notte per postare un elevato dal 2008 presso 103.92, USD/JPY declinato nella sessione europea a trovare supporto a martedì s alta, prima di spingere superiore a dove attualmente vende a 103.69.
USD/JPY ha portato più in alto dall'esportatore sforzi di copertura
Durante la notte, la coppia ha visto un'impennata superiore off fermate attivati a seguito di una combinazione di domanda al dettaglio giapponesi ed esportatore sforzi di copertura. La mossa più elevata visto posto livellata al 104, prima di trovare il supporto ad alta di martedì presso 103.40. Tuttavia, notizia che il prossime spese di politica di bilancio del Giappone sarà un record alto, intorno a JPY73 miliardi, ha contribuito a istigare una mossa verso alti.
Quali sono i livelli USD/JPY chiave di oggi?
RSI è attualmente a 65 e che vanno subito sotto il territorio di ipercomprato, con ADX 38. La SMA oraria 200 si trova a 102.71, pendenza superiore al fianco di EMA 20 giornaliero presso 101.81. Il punto pivot giornaliero può essere trovato alla 103.00, con supporto inferiore a 102.6543 (S1), 102.0022 (S2) e 101.6493 (S3) e resistenza sopra a 103.6593 (R1), 104.0122 (R2) e 104.6643 (R3). La gamma 103.32-102.98 dovrebbe fornire il supporto tecnico, con diversi livelli tecnici chiave cluster.
Rabu, 01 Januari 2014
USD/JPY extends slide from multi year high
USD/JPY extends decline followed soft us PPI numbers
The United States PPI data came in softer than expected at 0.7 percent on an annual basis against expectations of 0.8%, -0.1% 0.0% expected against mother in line for MOM ex food and energy, but 1.3% 1.4% forecast for equivalent on an annual basis. The news is hardly high-impact, but represents the single point of the United States of the day and finishing the calendar for the week. USD/JPY has found high support Tuesday to 103.41 in his initial pull back from multi year high and looked to bounce on news of a record-sized budget to JPY73 billion.
What are the technical specifications for USD/JPY's key today?
The hourly RSI is 44, moving downward with a pulse, and ADX followed 38 suit. The FXstreet.com proprietary tools, the OB/OS index and the index of trend are neutral and slightly bearish, respectively. The 200 SMA to 102.72 sits, with a slope upward while the 20 EMA is positioned in the upper direction and 101.81 too. Looking ahead, the range between 102.87-53 could offer support, with different technical levels. Matt Bacon-Hall of FXBeat says that around "00-103.10, there are option related offers, Leveraged account deals around 102.80-70."