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Kamis, 09 Januari 2014
U.S. November Producer Price Index (MoM) rises to -0.1%; 0.7% (YoY)
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Flash: Yen Weakness continues but doubts persist Abenomics-BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona)-Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that continued weak Yen, USD/JPY Trading to its highest level since October 2008, just under 104 during the Asian session soon.
Key quotes
"This eclipsed the may high near 103.75, and the next major technical objective seems to be high near 110.65 August 2008".
"Some intermediate resistance is likely to be seen near 105, and the move will most likely be a slow grind higher as doubts persist about the effectiveness of Abenomics".
Rabu, 08 Januari 2014
Wall Street declines for the second meeting of the FOMC next week
FXstreet.com (San Francisco)--The stock market closed higher Friday, but posted its second negative week in a row as investors are cautious ahead of a federal reserve policy meeting next week.
Wall Street has logged its worst week since August. The Dow Jones and the S P 500 posted its & day as positive in the last 10 sessions.
The DJIA advanced 15.93 pts or 0.10 percent Friday, to close the session at 15, 755.36; the Dow declined 1.65 percent on the week. S P 500 declined 0.18 & pts or 0.01% today and closes the week 1.65% negative at 1, 775.32. The Nasdaq added 2.57 pts 0.06% or weekend at 4, 000.98; the composite lost 1.51% for the past 5 days.
GBP/USD finds support at 1.6260
FXstreet.com (San Francisco)--after the fall around 85 pips from 1.6350 in the European session, GBP/USD seems to have found support to 1.6250, the lowest since November 21, where the couple rebounded to trade at 1.6280.
GBP/USD triggered orders about 1.6315 stops at the beginning of the session, as the cable is down for the third day in a row. The pound to Dollar exchange rate lost 200 pips from 10 December high to low for 3 weeks to 1.6465 1.6265.
GBP/USD: Bias
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6290, down 0.33 percent on the day. The short-term outlook remains bearish slightly according to the index of FXstreet.com trend in 1 hour chart. MACD, CCI and momentum are pointing South, while the stochastic is bullish.
GBP/USD at media meet 1.6300, 1.6120 and 1.6000. On the upside, the heating elements are at 1.6320, 1.6350 and 1.6415.
Flash: A stronger dollar-TDS
FXstreet.com (London)-search strategists at TD Securities noted a stronger dollar by the end of the week.
Key quotes:
"The House of the United States passed the budget last night, helping to sustain a generally firmer USD".
"Focus on next week's FOMC meeting and 10-year yields in the United States approaching 2.90% are also USD-supportive".
Selasa, 07 Januari 2014
Running low on EUR/USD
FXstreet.com (London)-EUR/USD is coming down closing hours on week marks a low level of oscillator and 1.3709 currently 1.3734 on a slow end to the session.
Strategists at TD Securities "the biggest problem for EUR/USD over the next few days will be the potential for the Fed thins, that a considerable part of the participants believe could come as soon as next week".
EUR/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 1.3601, DMA is 50 and 200 DMA 1.3591 is 1.3255. (14) ' RSI 68.01 law. Supports are ascending from 1.3677, 1.3695, 1.3719, 1.3734, 1.3746, 1.3780, 1.3818, 1.3833 and 1.3871.
How to Find USDCAD Entry Levels with Fibonacci Retracements
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Talking Points - USDCAD has been on an uptrend and may continue to rally higher - A pullback to a Fibonacci level with a Japanese candlestick reversal pattern would provide an excellent risk to reward entry at an area of significant support watched by Forex Traders - In an uptrend, a stop can be placed one Fibonacci level below the level that was entered for the long trade. After a big uptrend seems to stall and pullback, novice traders oftentimes try to pick a top and short the previous move. Usually, they have some initial success, but when the correction ends and the uptrend resumes, these traders end up losing. Experienced Forex trend traders will take a different approach. They will scan their charts and look at the uptrends that they may have missed and then use a method to quickly and easily identify areas where they can pick up these strong currency trends at a discount. Forex traders use the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% to anticipate where a profit-taking decline might end. Forex traders will wait for price to successfully test a Fib level and bounce higher. A Japanese candlestick reversal pattern such as a bullish engulfing, hammer, or morning star that forms at one of these Fib levels is additional visual confirmation. These patterns are useful at showing that a particular Fib level will hold and the uptrend is about to resume.
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts) Trading Setup The current trading setup below shows a USDCAD daily chart uptrend resuming from a correction that ended on September 18th near at 1.0181. From this point, USDCAD has rallied over 500 pips to a high of 1.0707 on December 6th. For the last four days, USDCAD is in correction mode in what appears to be an orderly profit-taking decline. Typically, a currency pair will experience a 23.6% to 50% correction before the uptrend resumes. In other instances the correction can be as deep as 61.8% or 78.6% of the upswing rise. At the time of this writing, USDCAD is trading at 1.0624 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.0583. Traders will look for a successful test of this key support level before entering long. One of the candlestick reversal patterns pictured in the above diagram may appear as price rebounds from this support zone. The Trading Plan Once USDCAD forms a bullish reversal Japanese candlestick pattern at a key Fibonacci level i.e. 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6%, and starts to move up, look to enter long with a stop placed about 4-pips below the next level of Fibonacci support under the entry. A limit can be set at 1.0768 which is slightly above the recent high made on December 6th. This amounts to about 86 pips of risk and a 186 pips of potential gain. Remember, there are four other common Fibonacci levels to watch as well. So if the USDCAD fails to bounce from the 23.6%, then we can repeat the same method of first looking for a candlestick reversal pattern at or near the Fibonacci level, entering long after a bounce, and then placing a stop four pips below the next Fibonacci level. In fact, if the correction moves lower, we have the option to move our limit down to the next level of resistance. Learn Forex: USDCAD Fibonacci Setup 
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts) If USDCAD declined to the 0.786% level, the stop would be placed four pips below the swing low at 1.0174 and profits could be taken 1.0582. The deeper the correction, the less likely the trend may continue as traders that were reluctant to buy the dips are unlikely to push price higher. If traders are aggressively buying dips at the 23.6% and 38.2% because they believe that there is good value, the trend is more likely to continue with new highs being made. Traders hoping get long at lower levels miss out and are forced to get in at higher and higher levels propelling price higher. Though it must be noted that if the correction exceeds 100% of the upswing, a change in trend direction may be underway. In sum, traders can use a combination of candlestick patterns and Fibonacci levels to identify high probability trades in the direction of the trend. ---Written by Gregory McLeod Trading Instructor To contact Gregory McLeod, email gmcleod@dailyfx.com. To be added to Greg’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to mailto:gmcleod@dailyfx.com Follow me on Twitter @gregmcleodtradr. This article showed you how to use Fibonacci to trade USDCAD. I want to invite you to enroll in our free Fibonacci Retracement Courseto further your understanding of Fibonacci. Sign our Guestbook to gain access to this course that will help you get up to speed on Forex market basics. You can master the material all while earning your completion certificate. Register HERE to start your Forex learning now!
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Talking Points - USDCAD has been on an uptrend and may continue to rally higher - A pullback to a Fibonacci level with a Japanese candlestick reversal pattern would provide an excellent risk to reward entry at an area of significant support watched by Forex Traders - In an uptrend, a stop can be placed one Fibonacci level below the level that was entered for the long trade. After a big uptrend seems to stall and pullback, novice traders oftentimes try to pick a top and short the previous move. Usually, they have some initial success, but when the correction ends and the uptrend resumes, these traders end up losing. Experienced Forex trend traders will take a different approach. They will scan their charts and look at the uptrends that they may have missed and then use a method to quickly and easily identify areas where they can pick up these strong currency trends at a discount. Forex traders use the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% to anticipate where a profit-taking decline might end. Forex traders will wait for price to successfully test a Fib level and bounce higher. A Japanese candlestick reversal pattern such as a bullish engulfing, hammer, or morning star that forms at one of these Fib levels is additional visual confirmation. These patterns are useful at showing that a particular Fib level will hold and the uptrend is about to resume.
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts) Trading Setup The current trading setup below shows a USDCAD daily chart uptrend resuming from a correction that ended on September 18th near at 1.0181. From this point, USDCAD has rallied over 500 pips to a high of 1.0707 on December 6th. For the last four days, USDCAD is in correction mode in what appears to be an orderly profit-taking decline. Typically, a currency pair will experience a 23.6% to 50% correction before the uptrend resumes. In other instances the correction can be as deep as 61.8% or 78.6% of the upswing rise. At the time of this writing, USDCAD is trading at 1.0624 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.0583. Traders will look for a successful test of this key support level before entering long. One of the candlestick reversal patterns pictured in the above diagram may appear as price rebounds from this support zone. The Trading Plan Once USDCAD forms a bullish reversal Japanese candlestick pattern at a key Fibonacci level i.e. 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6%, and starts to move up, look to enter long with a stop placed about 4-pips below the next level of Fibonacci support under the entry. A limit can be set at 1.0768 which is slightly above the recent high made on December 6th. This amounts to about 86 pips of risk and a 186 pips of potential gain. Remember, there are four other common Fibonacci levels to watch as well. So if the USDCAD fails to bounce from the 23.6%, then we can repeat the same method of first looking for a candlestick reversal pattern at or near the Fibonacci level, entering long after a bounce, and then placing a stop four pips below the next Fibonacci level. In fact, if the correction moves lower, we have the option to move our limit down to the next level of resistance. Learn Forex: USDCAD Fibonacci Setup (Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts) If USDCAD declined to the 0.786% level, the stop would be placed four pips below the swing low at 1.0174 and profits could be taken 1.0582. The deeper the correction, the less likely the trend may continue as traders that were reluctant to buy the dips are unlikely to push price higher. If traders are aggressively buying dips at the 23.6% and 38.2% because they believe that there is good value, the trend is more likely to continue with new highs being made. Traders hoping get long at lower levels miss out and are forced to get in at higher and higher levels propelling price higher. Though it must be noted that if the correction exceeds 100% of the upswing, a change in trend direction may be underway. In sum, traders can use a combination of candlestick patterns and Fibonacci levels to identify high probability trades in the direction of the trend. ---Written by Gregory McLeod Trading Instructor To contact Gregory McLeod, email gmcleod@dailyfx.com. To be added to Greg’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to mailto:gmcleod@dailyfx.com Follow me on Twitter @gregmcleodtradr. This article showed you how to use Fibonacci to trade USDCAD. I want to invite you to enroll in our free Fibonacci Retracement Courseto further your understanding of Fibonacci. Sign our Guestbook to gain access to this course that will help you get up to speed on Forex market basics. You can master the material all while earning your completion certificate. Register HERE to start your Forex learning now!
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